How (Not) to Test for Overconfidence

2400 words; 10 minute read.

A Mistake
Do people tend to be overconfident? Let’s find out.  For each question, select your answer, and then rate your confidence in that answer on a 50–100% scale:

1. Which has a bigger population: Rome or Madrid?
2. Which came first: the printing press or Machiavelli’s The Prince?
3. Which is longer: an American football field, or a home-run lap?

If you’re like most people, your responses will have two features.

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