KEVIN DORST
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Stranger Apologies

How (Not) to Test for Overconfidence

2/18/2020

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2400 words; 10 minute read.

A Mistake

Do people tend to be overconfident? Let’s find out.  For each question, select your answer, and then rate your confidence in that answer on a 50–100% scale:
  1. Which has a bigger population: Rome or Madrid?
  2. Which came first: the printing press or Machiavelli’s The Prince?
  3. Which is longer: an American football field, or a home-run lap?
If you’re like most people, your responses will have two features.

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    Kevin Dorst

    Philosopher at MIT, trying to convince people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think

    Quick links:
    - What this blog is about
    - ​Reasonably Polarized series
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